Rational mNAV — valuing the wrapper in Bitcoin terms against the self-custody hurdle. Self-custodied BTC is the benchmark: one coin stays one coin, a 0% Bitcoin-denominated return. The tool asks whether owning MSTR provides superior returns compared to holding self-custody Bitcoin, after a counterparty-risk hurdle. It runs a Monte Carlo over the Bitcoin price — under your choice of three models (power law, diminishing returns, or GBM), each anchored to its own estimate of today's fair value — and the short policy rate (SOFR), then propagates Strategy's full capital structure (an endogenous floating-preferred dividend, convertibles resolving at their put dates, a premium-scaled accretive equity program, and a strict financing waterfall) to a fair premium: the mNAV at which the equity beats self-custody half the time. Here mNAV is Strategy's equity market capitalization — the MSTR share price times diluted shares outstanding — divided by the total dollar value of all the Bitcoin the company holds. The market and balance-sheet fields come pre-filled with a starting snapshot — overwrite them with current values before relying on the output — and your job is to set the horizon, the hurdle, and which Bitcoin model you believe.
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Power-law fair value auto-computes from the current date (Porkopolis fit, 1.6×10⁻¹⁷ · days^5.77) — it stays current with no input. The market and balance-sheet fields are a static snapshot (BTC held, shares, preferred par, coupon, reserve, and the three prices), sourced from Strategy's SEC filings and public trackers. A browser tool can't live-fetch these (no public CORS APIs), so overwrite them with current values before relying on the output. Preferred par (~$15.5B aggregate liquidation preference across STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD/STRE — five series) and the blended coupon are issuer-reported / estimated — verify against the most recent 10-Q.
This assesses simulated outcomes under your selected Bitcoin model (each a contested prior about future prices, with its own estimate of today's fair value). The verdict is only as sound as your inputs and that assumption. BTC self-custody is the numeraire (0% BTC-denominated return); MSTR must clear your counterparty hurdle to win. No CAMT (Treasury interim guidance excludes unrealized crypto gains). No forced BTC sale — preferred dividends pause and accrue.
Disclaimer. This tool is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or asset, including MSTR shares, Strategy's preferred securities, or Bitcoin. Every figure it produces is the conditional output of user-supplied assumptions and stylized parameters, is not a forecast, and may differ materially from realized outcomes. Markets involve risk of loss. Conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified, licensed professional before making any investment decision.